Forex Strategy: Fundamental Vs Technical Currency Analysis

Chances are, if you’re just getting started analyzing currencies, you have a long list of questions: What is currency analysis? What are the different ways to analyze Forex assets? And how will my analysis inform my trading efforts? These are important questions to answer, and it’s probably best to start with a quick definition of currency analysis.

In the simplest terms, currency analysis is the research of economic factors that affect exchange rates, as well as researching historical market data. Essentially, a day trader’s goal is to extrapolate the future movement of a particular currency by analyzing market factors and economic data. This will help a day trader make better guesses as to whether a currency pair will lose or gain value.

Fundamental Currency Analysis

There are many different macroeconomic factors that can affect the value of a currency and its exchange rate. Fundamental analysis looks at these factors to determine the overall well-being of a country’s economy, because economic standing is a strong determinant of currency value. Some factors a fundamental analysis might consider include:

Inflation rates

Trade balances

GDP

Interest rates

And job growth

In effect, the goal is to get a gauge of the overall economic factors that may affect that country’s currency. For example, a country with an increasing inflation rate may experience a decrease in currency value. A Forex trader might then enter a trading position betting on the downward trend of that currency. It’s important to note, though, that it’s difficult to trade on fundamental analysis alone. Most frequently, a trader will also need to conduct technical analysis.

Technical Currency Analysis

With the advances in technology, day traders have access to a wealth of Foreign Exchange market data. Technical analysis is the process of digging into this data to reveal market behaviors and price patterns. This analysis can be carried out over long periods of time – say a year or more – or in short, 4-hour time periods.

Forex trading software can be a useful tool for improving the insights yielded by technical analysis. For example, many Forex trading applications today are designed with advanced algorithms that measure these behaviors and price patterns in real-time, effectively automating the process of picking trades. One advantage of this type of analysis is that day traders have better knowledge of when to enter and exit a particular position.

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis: Which is Better?

Ask any day trader what they prefer, and they’ll likely say they use a combination of both. When used together, fundamental and technical analysis yield greater insights into the market, as another layer of data is added into the equation.

We can break it down further. For example, let’s say a country just elected a politician who wants to enact a quantitative easing program. This program has the potential to weaken the value of the currency – that’s a valuable piece of fundamental analysis. Combining this data with a technical analysis of that country’s currency – long-term and short-term trends – will help you best determine the positions that will be most beneficial to you.

Interested in learning Forex trading? Enroll today in the Learn Forex course from Learn To Trade; you’ll polish your fundamental and technical analysis skills, learn new strategies for minimizing your trading risk, and develop better knowledge of the Foreign Exchange market.

The Best FOREX Price Action Trading Indicator – Shift Theory Ratio Price Action Analysis

There is a new category of technical analysis available for trading the FOREX markets. It is called Shift Theory and this new technique is based on Shift Ratios that break down the three main types of chart conditions:

  • Choppy Markets
  • Up Trending Markets
  • Down Trending Markets

What Shift Theory Ratios do is focus on the important data and ignores the data that is responsible for false signals and noise. The Shift Theory trading approach works better than any other form of technical analysis because it focuses on the science of price analysis. Most technical analysis today focuses on the closing price as the main piece of data that is analyzed. The main issue with that is the closing price is a moving target. A lot traders don’t realize that indicators are nothing more than measuring tools and they need to be treated that way. When it comes to measuring price you need stable data to get an accurate reading. I like to use an example of trying the weigh yourself on a scale. If you keep jumping around while you try to weigh yourself then it is almost imposable to get an accurate reading. That is exactly what the closing price does. It changes every time there is an uptick or down tick and that changes the reading of most indicators and that results in a lot of noise and false trading signals.

The Shift Trading Ratios rely on the undeniable facts of market trends. Some examples are:

  • Prices on a chart can only go higher if they make a new high.
  • Prices on a chart can only go lower if they make a new low.
  • Choppy markets have bars that have a high percentage of overlap.

As a trader the Shift Theory Ratios are excellent tool to keep traders disciplined and sticking to sound trading principles. As a example we will cover the reading and indications Shift Ratios give in 3 types of market conditions:

  • Choppy
  • Up Trending
  • Down trending

When market conditions are choppy the Inside Shift Ratio is the plot that measures that type of market condition. What the Inside Shift Ratio does is measure the current bar percentage that is overlapping the previous bar. All choppy markets have a high percentage of bars that overlap each other. It is easy to see on a chart but most indicators simply cannot measure these types of condition because they are based on the closing price.

If the market is up trending then the Upper Shift Ratio is the indicator that measures that type of price change. In up trending markets the bars on a chart should be making higher highs and that is a undeniable fact about upward moving markets.

During down markets the Lower Shift Ratio is the indicator that measures the strength of the down trend. This again is based on the undeniable fact that downward markets must make lower lows in order to go lower.

In the end these techniques work and the proof is in the back testing. A dirty secret many indicators have is they really don’t work and that is why nobody is willing to show any back testing results. So if you want to find the best FOREX trading indicator then you need to take a look at the Shift Theory Ratios. If you want consistent and proven results then as a traders you must focus on the important data and ignore the data that is responsible for signal noise and lag.