Most Oil Sellers and Brokers Fail – Crude Oil Selling Procedures That Sell in Today’s Internet Era

Most Crude Oil And Petroleum Product Sellers, Brokers and Agents, in the International “Secondary” Oil Market, Do Not Make Any Sales Or Income. Do You Ever Wonder Why?

A MAJOR “HIDDEN SECRET” OF OIL SELLERS & BROKERS: MOST DO NOT MAKE ANY SALES or INCOME

Crude oil and petroleum products sellers, and their brokers and agents, who operate in the so-called “secondary market” of the international oil market today, do not usually speak about this, or like to do so. Or like the fact about this to be known. In deed, many of them would rather that it be kept obscured, or simply misrepresented. But, the fact is that one distinctive part of their business “reality” is this: as a group, they frequently close no deals nor make any sales for the oil product they purport to have available to sell, and, in fact, the vast majority of them often go for months, even years, or perhaps for ever, without ever landing even a single sales contract or deal. It is probably what might simply be called “the open secret” of the oil selling industry!

C. Keila Nakasaka, a California attorney and real estate investor and entrepreneur, who conducted extensive market research and investigations into the D2 diesel oil trade to see if he could prudently recommend taking up the commission broker’s job to his clients, says he came away from his research greatly disillusioned and disappointed. According to him, the “stories that these brokers concoct are that the seller has some direct connection with a refinery. Some even claim that the seller is, in fact, one of the leading energy companies in Russia… [but] what bothered me [the most] is that almost every one of these brokers failed to be forthcoming. They often misrepresented themselves as mandates, direct representatives, and even buyer and sellers.”

Probably the principal and most sensitive thing about which most such sellers and intermediaries (the agents, facilitators, mandates, brokers, etc.) are least “forthcoming” and “misrepresenting” about, is concerning the number and volume of sales deals they have ever closed, if any, or the income they have earned in the trade, if any. Simply put, almost all of these operatives generally close no deals, and earn almost nothing. Most of them go for months, even years – or forever – without successfully closing any sales deals, not to speak of earning even a dime in commission income!

As Nakasaka put it, describing his findings: “Another factor which I thought was odd was that most of the brokers I spoke with never closed a D2 deal despite their months and sometimes years in this business. There was one broker who claimed that he had pending deals, and two who stated that they did in fact close these deals. However, I did not find them credible.”

MAJOR REASONS FOR THIS, WHICH ACCOUNT FOR WHY MOST “SECONDARY MARKET” SELLERS & THEIR INTERMEDIARIES NEVER CLOSE ANY DEALS

Why is this so – that they make no sales or income? Many factors account for it. They could roughly be summed up as follows:

1. MOST SELLERS (and their intermediaries) ARE FAKE, ANY WAY, WITH NO CRUDE OR OIL PRODUCT TO SELL

A fact that is by now well-established and not subject to any disputation whatsoever among credible experts in the industry, is that the overwhelming majority of selling offers peddled by crude oil and petroleum product “sellers” in the so-called “secondary” oil markets, and their brokers, agents, and other intermediaries, are fake and bogus. In deed, some objective studies and research have put its extent at a whopping level of some 99.999999 percent of all offers presented for sale. Probably the only thing of much redeeming value that could be stated about this, is that with particular respect to those who act as foreign brokers and intermediaries in the business, some of them may often be engaged fraudulently in the business but innocently and unwittingly, mistakenly believing that the deal or selling operation is authentic and legitimate, when it actually is not.

2.LACK OF PROPER TRAINING, SKILLS OR KNOWLEDGE IN THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BUSINESS

Put very simply, perhaps nowhere is the saying that “we live in a wide interconnected world” more applicable today than in the world of the international buying and selling of crude oil and petroleum products. For the most part, virtually all that one needs in order to become a “seller” of crude oil or petroleum product, or his agent, legitimate or not, who are operating out of any part of the world, is simply to have an access to a computer and an Internet connection. That’s just about all! Unfortunately, however, one dire negative effect of this so-called “revolution of the Internet” (among many others), has been that many who now claim to be, or operate as, “sellers” or the sellers’ “brokers” or “agents,” are largely uneducated or semi-illiterate, untrained and unskilled, and are lacking in any knowledge of the proper fundamentals of international oil trading.

Kamal J. Southall, one of the foremost experts on the subject, whose book, “Trade Fraud, Financial Fraud, and the Joker Broker,” is one of the most authoritative texts on the phenomenon, puts it this way:

“Have you noticed that as you’ve searched Google and libraries, and looked high and low, finding bits of information here and there, you encounter interesting phenomena: very little practical information on the art and science of dealing in International trade as an independent trader exists in any comprehensive way. Certain practices, documents, and procedures; mysterious acronyms such as “NCND” or “MPA,” are thrown back and forth, badly corrupted model documents and forms may filter your way, but the reality is that most attempted home based traders, brokers – or, more properly, intermediaries – learn through highly expensive ‘trial and error,’… often re-inventing the wheel each time, in that ever-elusive search for a deal and knowledge on how to close that deal.”

Southall estimates, citing another expert’s calculation, that out of some one million individuals currently trying to make it as brokers or trade intermediaries in the world, “perhaps no more than 1% has the training and skill needed to ever close a deal… [meaning that] the overwhelming majority, are trading blindly, [hence] deals are collapsing… and more to the point, [oil dealers are] being defrauded – sometimes massive..”

Mr. R. Ambardar, a broker of over 10 years of wide experience in international market development and advisory services, calls “lack of experience and knowledge” one of the principal reasons why many brokers and facilitators fail in crude oil endeavors. “Many people are attracted into this business because of [the tales they hear about the] kind of money one can earn on account of successful deals. Many agents fail, [however], to understand that requirements to succeed in this business are very demanding, [and that] Only those who have years of hands-on experience and thorough knowledge of the industry can strive to do well as middle-men.”

A great many number of brokers, Ambardar adds, forget that “To become a ‘Facilitator’ in oil business,… what you actually need is right knowledge and expertise [since this is what will help] you hook up genuine buyers and sellers. One should be in the industry for long to have acquired knowledge related to the dynamics of this business.”

Consequently, one fundamental way in which this general lack of competence or knowledge about the basics of the oil trade manifests itself, is in the inability of the average person among the string of brokers and agents and intermediaries that operate in the trade, to craft good deals and successfully close sales deals even after several months or years in the business.

3. BYE AND LARGE, MOST BROKERS AND AGENTS LEARN THEIR CRAFT FROM THE INTERNET, AND THIS HAS SOME SERIOUS DRAWBACKS

There is, for the average contemporary seller’s agent or broker, one other serious shortcoming and negative consequence that emanates directly out of the fact that the primary source of their education and training by which they learn the workings of the oil trading business, is essentially the Internet. Again, Kamal J. Southall sums up these negative consequences this way:

“The expertise in recognizing a questionable trade lead or tender request from a strong one, is generally lacking through the Internet, [and] there is no critical filtering of the leads you end up reading. Anything that can be put out there, is put out there, from the genuine to the questionable, to the fraudulent. Moreover, the nature of the “broker network” is such that information is often passed about with little critical filtering, lack of knowledge of proper trading procedures and the general tendency of information to become corrupted as it trades hands, [and this] leads to dangerous results.”

4.LONG STRING OF BROKERS, AGENTS AND MIDDLEMEN, MOST OF WHOM UNDERCUT EACH OTHER.

Partly as a result of the virtual lack of any objective requirements for qualification as an agent or middleman in the trade, and the ease of entry into it, these operators generally tend to function in a climate of little or no rules or standards, and of loose or no ethics, in which the “dog eat dog” mentality seem to prevail – a climate in which each broker, agent, or mandate, being only selfishly concerned with just his own personal gains and self-interest, is constantly trying to undercut and circumvent the other in deals. Thus, often leading to the ultimate detriment of ALL the parties involved in an offer, as ALL of them, as a whole, and not just one party or the other, invariably wind up the losers since NO deal at all is had with any buyer.

“[One] reason why it’s difficult to ascertain the truth [concerning the oil product market],” reported C. Keila Nakasaka, the California attorney and entrepreneur who investigated the industry in 2010 for possible recommendation of the trade to his clients, “is that there are multiple brokers involved in any given transaction; and they’re all afraid of circumvention. Hence, it’s almost impossible to know the end buyer or seller. Now, I understand that sometimes it requires teamwork to put a large transaction together, but what bothered me is that almost every one of these brokers failed to be forthcoming. They often misrepresented themselves as mandates, direct representatives, and even buyer and sellers.”

THE “JOKER BROKER” CHARACTER

Sure, admittedly, there’s no question that the phenomenon of having a lengthy string of players, including brokers, agents and intermediaries, in a business transaction, is a necessary aspect of international business. Even more so, especially, in today’s Internet world in which we are all so interconnected globally. Certainly, in oil sales transactions, it should come as no surprise or anything unusual to anyone that such operations, because they often tend to involve huge sums of money and elaborate logistics, would sometimes require teamwork to put the transactions together. And hence, should sometimes involve a multiple number of parties – traders, agents, intermediaries, brokers, mandates, buyers, distributors, etc – to conclude a deal. However, what is different here, is not so much the fact that in the Internet crude oil dealings one encounters a string of too many brokers and middlemen. Rather, it is the fact that most of these brokers and middlemen or intermediaries that get involved in it, typically act and behave in the detrimental manner of what is known as the so-called “Joker Brokers.”

As Kamal J. Southall put it, “But the experience of the underground string of international brokers trading meaningless offers and circumventing each other, left and right, illustrates well the term “Joker Broker” and resembles, often, a Zoo full of monkeys.”

Adding that “the character, [which is] often scorned as ‘the Joker Broker,’ is one thing most people encounter very quickly in their forays into the world of trading,” Southall, the author of a classic on the “Joker Broker” character, gives a definition and explanation of the essence of this “Joker Broker” behavior, this way:

“Defined in the first instance as a bit of a time waster, the joker broker is an individual who knowingly or unknowingly peddles and plies deals and products that, in the vast majority of instances, are non-existent, or badly defined. Characterized by a tendency to bluff his way through transactions, the Joker Broker is one… [who goes about] plying deals often involving a string of brokers from one end of the planet to another, and yet not a single one has verified the very existence of the goods at hand.”

.One significant result of this?

With a multiplicity of brokers and chain of agents often involved in a trade, and each party operating selfishly and undercutting and sabotaging each other in a working environment in which each party is untrusting of the other in a transaction, and is scared of being circumvented by the other; most deals which the “secondary” market sellers and their brokers and agents undertake, are automatically doomed to failure, even from the very beginning. And often do fail.

5. PERVASIVENESS OF “The Joker Broker” MENTALITY AMONG THE INTERNET BROKERS, AGENTS & OTHER INTERMEDIARES

However, probably the most fundamental and central factor which accounts for why most intermediaries involved in the “secondary” oil market are generally not able to, and do not, close any sales deals or earn any income or commission as brokers and agents even after several months or years of peddling their oil product, could simply be condensed into one broad term: namely, the powerful pervasive grip that the “The Joker Broker” mentality has come to have on the brokers and agents, most of whom today are merely Internet-based brokers and agents.

What Is meant by this?

Put very simply, many brokers and agents, driven and limited by the fact that they generally lack much training or knowledge in the fundamentals of international trading, and by the fact, in today’s Internet era, that their only “qualification” for assuming the mantle of being a “broker” or “agent” in the oil business, is simply that they have an access to the Internet and a computer, often behave in their conduct of the oil selling operation, in a manner that “resembles, often, a Zoo full of monkeys” – in the words of Kamal J. Southall, the author of a classic on “‘the Joker Broker” character. A common characteristic of these brokers and agents, is that they peddle, knowingly or unknowingly, crude oil deals and products that on the face of it, are in most instances seemingly non-existent or questionable, or at least badly defined, while yet acting as though all is well with the product they offer, and that there’s absolutely nothing for the prospective buyer to worry about concerning it. They are mostly blinded by greed and false belief that they “are going to be super rich next week or next month” by doing nothing, other than, just shoving around a few copied documents on the Internet usually passed down to them from other jokers, none of which any of them has usually verified as to the very existence of the goods they purport to be selling.

Apart from the fact that a good many of them would, whether they do it knowingly or not, frequently try to push fake deals on the Internet, they generally act out of many misconceptions and beliefs which are simply not true, usually passed down to them from other jokers. Many times, mainly concerned with “making a quick, fast buck,” they are innocently and naively trying to close a deal for someone who they believe or merely hope to be real, but who is, in fact really not. But oftentimes, they are too proud or conceited to simply accept or concede that their own beliefs and procedures are simply incorrect, refuse to change their ways, and continue to waste their time and others’ time for months and years still trying to push deals – until, perhaps, it finally begins to dawn on them that for so long no deals have been closed, or are likely to be closed, and not a dime of income has been, or would be, earned!

But above all else, perhaps the most detrimental factor that results in the lack of business or income for most “Internet” crude oil brokers and agents, is the fact that, lacking much experience or real understanding of the true workings of international business or the way it actually works, they are often totally unrealistic and impractical about the conditions and requirements they demand of, or expect that, prospective buyers would accept in order to buy the products they purport to have for sale. That is, they often present sales offers and proposals that are so impracticable, unworkable and outrageously unreal, and are totally contrary to the way normal and legitimate business has traditionally been done in the real world.

As one analyst put it, “Some of them [the “Internet” brokers or joker brokers] are quite entertaining [in the notions about business workings they present], and remind us of the Nigerian scam artists. The world simply does not work like that.”

EXAMPLE OF JOKER BROKER OFFER THAT CAN’T WORK

The following is a good example of the Joker Broker-type of offer that the oil sellers and their brokers and agents, most of whom operate mostly online today, typically demand of intending buyers. It is presented in the form of the transactions PROCEDURES they demand that the would-be oil buyer should meet and follow, such as these:

TRANSACTIONS PROCEDURES:

1) The Buyer submits ICPO (Irrevocable Corporate Purchase Order) & banking details

2) Seller issues FCO (Full Corporate Offer) on his letterhead with full contact details.

3) Buyer returns the FCO duly signed and stamped.

4) Seller and buyer sign contract.

5) Seller and buyer exchange the Proof of Product (POP) and Proof of Funds (POF) in the following sequence/order:

6). First: Seller issues POP to the buyer. Second: After buyer verification and within 7 banking days, buyer’s bank issues POF to seller’s bank.

7) Buyers bank opens non-operative Letter of Credit (L/C) to seller’s bank/or Bank Guarantee (at seller’s choice).

8) Seller issues 2% Performance Bond (PB) to activate L/C.

9) Shipment commences as per the agreed contract.

TO TODAY’S BUYERS, THIS IS WHAT THESE PROCEDURES ARE SAYING TO THEM

In point of fact, actually the procedures such as the above-outlined, are “standard” and should, in NORMAL and proper circumstances, ordinarily be a workable and acceptable set of terms and conditions or requirements for a credible prospective buyer to do business by. However, here’s what brings about the big difference here: there is one very serious and fundamental factor that is grossly missing here. And that is this: typically, such offer requiring the intending buyer to comply with these procedures, is made, NOT by or from by a known or established or even readily identifiable person or entity, or necessarily by an AUTHENTIC crude seller or supplier. But merely by an Internet “seller.” It is typically presented by someone who merely writes (or phones) and claims, usually via some Internet connection or communication (a portal, email or website), that he is a crude “seller,” or the broker or agent of one, who supposedly has some oil available to sell. And it is typically presented by someone who, invariably, would present virtually no tangible evidence or proof whatsoever establishing his (or her) bona fides and credentials as an authentic seller, or an intermediary of one, nor shows any real track record of having previously performed in the crude oil selling business, or any other products.

Thus, in effect, what is essentially happening here, is that a set of well-meaning procedures which have legitimately been designed by the industry professionals to be used by LEGITIMATE crude sellers, and have traditionally been used by RELIABLE and respectable crude sellers and buyers alike to do business, have suddenly been hijacked by a new breed of “Internet” brokers and agents – Joker Brokers – who now demand that prudent crude buyers are to adopt precisely those same procedures in transacting business with them! To put it another way, were these Internet brokers and crude “sellers” to have been some of the so-called oil Majors – such as Chevron, Valero, Shell Oil, Exxon Mobile, British Petroleum, Total Oil, etc. – meaning companies and business entities that are well-known, already established, readily recognizable, reputable and trustworthy, there would have been absolutely no problem or question about the crude buyers using those “standard” procedures and conditions set forth above in doing business with the Internet sellers and brokers. However, that is not the case all, here. Rather, quite to the contrary, these Internet-type brokers and agents (and the purported sellers whose offers they peddle), are largely Internet-based; and are generally obscure operations, or even non-existent, with no known identity, no recognized base of operations, or established record or history of past performance as crude sellers.

WHY THE INTERNET BROKERS’ PROCEDURES LARGELY DON’T & CAN’T WORK WITH BUYERS

Yet, this is, in the vast majority of instances, the kind of supposed crude “sellers” who want and ask that would-be buyers should be submitting to those same procedures and conditions in dealing with them. Clearly, that’s a ridiculous “Joker Broker” type of day-dreaming – virtually no credible crude oil buyer anywhere in the world would accept to submit an ICPO (Irrevocable Corporate Purchase Order) to a mere unknown, unproven, dubious Internet “seller” of crude oil to solicit business with such an entity. And certainly, no credible crude oil buyer anywhere in the world would accept to submit its Proof of Funds or financial and banking details to such an entity, or to even sign a contract with it – an entity about whom it knows practically nothing, and whose bona fides, credentials or existence as a supposed crude oil supplier, is largely dubious and unestablished.

A major, well-known, recognizable, or reputable entity or crude dealer, yes. But NOT an obscure, dubious, unknown entity, largely existing merely on the Internet.

Analysts at the JokerBroker.com website, which is a site devoted to extensive compilation of a database of the most notorious “Joker Brokers” persons and companies, sums it up this way, describing why most credible crude buyers would generally reject accepting such procedures and conditions often demanded of them by Internet brokers, outright:

“When a deal starts off with “send ICPO with BCL or Soft Probe, [POF], NCND and IMFPA,” this is “broker language.” Those that know broker language know what this means: “I’m a joker broker. I don’t have any real product for sale, and I don’t know anyone who has any, so I want you to give me an Irrevocable Purchase Order with your full financial details disclosed, so I can run around with your order and your money in my hands looking for product, and the next thing you see will be your company and banking details exposed to the whole world, running around unsecured on the Internet between thousands of other joker brokers.”… That is what this language means. I suggest you learn the language, and please do not send me even one “deal” which starts off with this procedure. Please just put them straight into the rubbish bin, which is exactly where I put them whenever anyone sends them to me.”

Kamal J. Southall, author of “Trade Fraud, and the Joker Broker,” describes the following as “some of the most notorious Joker Broker Documents”:

“The Irrevocable Purchase Order/IPO ICPO: Sometimes known as the Irrevocable Corporate Purchase Order, such a document simply does not exist. Or to put things more rudely, the ICPO is crap. There, we have said it, let the chips fall.”

SUMMARY

Here’s what might probably be called “the open secret” of the so-called secondary market oil industry: as a group, the crude oil and petroleum products sellers, and their long string of brokers, agents and intermediaries, generally close no deals nor make any sales or income out of the oil product they purport to sell, frequently after several months, even years, or perhaps for ever, of doing the business. There are several reasons which account for this. They range from the fact that most oil sellers and their brokers and other intermediaries, are fake operatives with no crude or petroleum product to sell, in the first, to lack of proper training and knowledge by these operatives in the fundamentals of the business, to the existence of certain serious drawbacks and shortcomings inherent in the fact that, bye and large, the principal source by which most brokers and agents today learn their craft today as oil dealers, is merely the Internet.

However, probably the most fundamental and most central factor of all which accounts for the above reality, could simply be condensed into one broad term: namely, the powerful pervasive grip that the “The Joker Broker” mentality has come to have on the brokers and agents, most of whom today are merely Internet-based brokers and agents. Typically lacking much experience or real understanding of international business or the way it actually works, and frequently blinded by greed and false belief that they “are going to be super rich next week or next month” by doing nothing, other than, perhaps, simply shoving around a few copied documents on the Internet, the conditions, requirements, and procedures often proposed by the “Internet” brokers and agents for prospective buyers to buy from a seller, are usually unrealistic, impracticable, outrageously unreal, even laughable and ludicrous atimes. They are unworkable conditions and requirements that are completely contrary to the way normal and legitimate business has traditionally been done in the real world. And consequently, credible buyers generally reject outright the sales offers coming from such Internet sales operatives, thus resulting in common lack of sales or commission income for such operatives, month after month, and even year after year.

For example, most of the selling offers one gets today for the sale of oil, are usually from Internet “sellers” – persons who merely claim, via an Internet communication, that they are “sellers” of crude or petroleum products with some product to sell, but typically have NO known identity, show no credible record or history of past performance as an AUTHENTIC crude seller or supplier, nor present any solid evidence that the supposed seller even exists. Yet, these mere “Internet” sellers would typically demand and expect a serious buyer of oil, to simply sign an “ICPO,” and enter into a binding contract with them committing itself to obligations valued in the several hundreds of millions of dollars with such a yet unproven and dubious Internet “sellers” (or brokers and agents), or to submit its most sensitive financial and banking details to them, etc! Demands which, clearly, virtually no credible crude oil buyer anywhere in the world would accept or submit to with merely a dubious, unknown, yet-to-be-established entity! On top of all that, add to that the reality that those harsh conditions are being demanded of intending buyers by the sellers and brokers in an oil industry that is, by all credible accounts, full of too many fakes and fraud in the contemporary oil selling industry!

And so, here you have it: why most supposed “secondary” market Internet oil sellers and their brokers and agents typically make no sales or income in their stint into crude oil and petroleum product selling business today in this Internet era, for months and years.

FOR A FOLLOW UP

WISH TO FOLLOW UP ON GETTING A CRUDE OIL OR PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SELLER OR BROKER WITH WORKABLE, REALISTIC PROCEDURES THAT A CREDIBLE BUYER CAN READILY ACCEPT? Please see the instructional information in the author’s resource box below

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The Definition of Bitcoin

Bitcoin is known as the very first decentralized digital currency, they’re basically coins that can send through the Internet. 2009 was the year where bitcoin was born. The creator’s name is unknown, however the alias Satoshi Nakamoto was given to this person.

Advantages of Bitcoin.

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Why Bitcoins?

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Ways of Acquiring Bitcoins.

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Storing and saving bitcoins.

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Types of wallets.

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Bitcoin Anonymity.

When doing a bitcoin transaction, there’s no need to provide the real name of the person. Each one of the bitcoin transactions are recorded is what is known as a public log. This log contains only wallet IDs and not people’s names. so basically each transaction is private. People can buy and sell things without being tracked.

Bitcoin innovation.

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Benefits of Prepaid Forex Cards for International Travelers

Cash has been out since the advent of plastic money. Carrying a card instead of hard cash to a foreign trip is far safer and cheaper as well as protects one against currency fluctuation. Find out why you why you should opt for Prepaid Forex Cards:

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A Basic Introduction to the Profit and Loss Account

The profit and loss account is fundamentally a summary of the trading transactions of a business and shows whether it has made a profit or loss during a particular period of account. Indeed, by deducting the total expenditure from total income the profit or loss of a business can be calculated. Along with the balance sheet, it is one of the key financial statements that make up a company’s statutory accounts.

Basically, this type of account shows the following information for a business:

  • Sales revenue earned by business
  • Cost of sales that the business has incurred
  • Other operating costs incurred by the business
  • Profit/Loss earned by business.

The profit and loss account usually has two columns: one for the current accounting period and one for the previous accounting period. Any costs directly associated with generating sales and also any other operating costs represent debits in the profit and loss account. Furthermore, the other operating costs are usually allocated to categories such as selling or administrative expenditure. The sales income for the business represents a credit in the account.

The basic construction is as follows:

Net Sales = Gross Sales – (Allowances + Discounts + Returns)

Cost of Goods Sold = Opening stock + Purchases – Closing stock

Gross Profit = Net Sales – Cost of Goods Sold

Net Profit = Gross Profit – Other operating costs

The profit and loss account is often seen as a key indicator of how well a business is doing. However, when interpreting the figures it is important to look at them in conjunction with the balance sheet and other financial information included in the accounts. Lastly, you should also bear in mind that the information in the profit and loss account is historic and therefore budgets, forecasts and other management accounting information is likely to be crucial in helping you to make any future financial and/or business decisions.

Asset Backed Securities Credit IO’s – Don’t Be A Slave To Your Data

In this article I am going to address a common complaint that we’ve seen ABS investors have: that when they’re putting together systems, too much automation creates a “black box” which then doesn’t permit the user to adjust the data in the manner in which they see fit.

Let’s face it, traders are on the front lines evaluating complex securities such as ABS bonds and the more you can permit users to take the data and create useful models that don’t “lock them into a particular view” of what’s being traded, the better it will be. Most often, traders build their own spreadsheets and, in general, do a great job. However, the lack of ability to dynamically communicate with a database of securities information can cause a great deal of trouble in the ABS market, if only when the next month’s data set comes out from trustees and they find themselves scrambling to manually update their spreadsheets.

Additionally, IT departments blanche at the thought of those overly flexible, manipulable spreadsheets that defy “systemization”. In this article we will discuss a specific example and how to satisfy the needs of both areas: IT and the Trading Desk.

Let’s take up the subject of “Credit IO’s”.

Definition: A Credit IO is an ABS bond which is sufficiently far down in the Capital Structure of an ABS deal that, based on the level of collateral defaults and loss severities that the market is currently experiencing, cause an investor to NOT expect any payment of principal.

Assumption: the bond’s principal WILL be written down to zero at some point. The investor expects NOT to get any principal back. However, until that point, the bond can earn interest cash flows therefore it’s an “Interest Only” bond.

Key Factor: Loss timing. Between now and precisely WHEN the bond is fully written down, the bond will be earning interest. Those monthly cash flows are worth something. The faster the bond will be written down, the less interest cash will be received. The longer the bond exists, the longer the bond will receive cash flows. The trick is to figure out when the losses will hit the bond. The timing of the losses will therefore have a dramatic effect on the price that an investor should be willing to pay for the bond. Less time until the fully-written down point = lower price.

So let’s take a look at some of the elements relating to the data side of this. Here are some of the relevant points:

1. Delinquencies

2. Foreclosure and REO timelines

3. Loss Severities to be used in determining how much of each loan will be lost due to defaults.

4. Credit Enhancements levels – primarily overcollateralization (OC) and each tranche’s current level of credit support (how much of the capital structure is supporting the particular tranche(s) we are evaluating).

On a Bloomberg you can bring up a simplistic method of evaluating this by typing an ABS cusip followed by the Mortgage key (F3) and then typing “MTCS” . This gives you the ability to take the deal’s current level of 60 day and 90 day delinquencies and apply a particular percentage of each that you expect to go through to default. The amounts of loans in Foreclosure (FC) and Real Estate Owned (REO) are assumed to be 100% in default. So we have as an example:

Table % % that will default default amt

% of Deal 60+ Day Delinq 8% 60% 4.8%

% of Deal 90+ Day Delinq 5% 70% 3.5%

% of Deal in FC 3.5% 100% 3.5%

% of Deal in REO 2.5% 100% 2.5%

For a total of 14.3% that we expect to end up in full default and thereby experience a loss.

Sum those figures up (14.3%) and multiply by a single loss severity input and you will have the approx amount of the deal that you will experience as a loss. Let’s say we use 50% Loss Severity. That will give us 7.15% of the outstanding collateral balance in the deal that we expect to impact the deal’s capital structure in the form of losses. Compare that amount versus the particular bond’s credit support that you’re evaluating and if you have a ratio (called the “Coverage Ratio” on Bloomberg), that is less than 1.00, then that bond is likely to disappear completely because there is simply not enough support for the bond to survive. Anyone with access to a Bloomberg can do the above. The above doesn’t actually try to predict WHEN the losses will occur – only that they are expected to occur at some point in the future. It also does not let you consider future loans that are current on their mortgage payments or are 30 days delinquent that will come down the “pipeline” into the more severely delinquent states and finally into realized losses. It also doesn’t try to tell you what it all means in terms of a “price” that you might be willing to pay for the bond.

So let’s kick this up a notch.

Loan-Level Delinquency information

First of all, let’s assume that we have access to loan-level information and that we know, not only the current delinquency status of each loan but exactly when the loan entered that status. Intex provides good loan level data for deals from about 2006 and onwards. Loan Performance provides loan-level information for all deals – loan level information is generally what Loan Performance is known for (but they don’t have very good data about the capital structures nor can they do really good cash flows on the bonds as Intex does). The point is that loan-level delinquency information is available.

So let’s retrieve all the loans from a particular deal into a spreadsheet from our database of loan-level information. Ideally, this should be automated from within the spreadsheet so we can always refresh the data whenever we need to ensure that it is representative of the most current data in our database.

We now have our hands on which loans are in which delinquency condition. Now, if we simplistically project out maximum timelines that all the loans will experience in FC and REO before they hit their loss point, we can derive a table of months going forward and WHEN those losses will be experienced.

For example, we can state the following:

A. Let’s say that a loan has been in FC for two months already: Let’s permit 6 months for the total “normal” amount of time that a loan is going to be in FC so that there are expected to be 4 months more of FC time for this particular loan. Then permit 6 months more for the full REO process. This means that month 10 is WHEN we expect the loss to hit.

B. Let’s say that a loan is currently in REO and has been so for 4 months. Permitting 6 months of complete REO time suggests that we have 2 more months to go. So 2 months from now is when we think we will realize a loss on this loan.

C. Let’s say that a loan has just become 90 days delinquent for the first time. They’re probably going to be in FC real soon, but maybe we feel that we should allow an additional month of being 90 days delinq. So we would have 1 more month of 90 days delinquency. A full 6 months of FC and 6 months of REO so that we expect the loss to hit in month 13.

We can continue to do the above for 60 days delinq loans and 30 day delinq loans. And possibly take some current loans based on the idea that some of these will also hit the skids.

Let’s assume an overall “Loss Severity” of 60%. According to some market participants 60% is getting more and more real. This means that, given a loan amount of $100,000 you are expecting to lose $60,000. Apply the loss severity input to each of the loan balances and sum those loss amounts up into each of the months you have projected into the future.

The result is that you end up with a table of months into the future within which losses can be summed up – month by month. At that point we have a relatively simplistic table giving us WHEN we expect the losses to hit. These losses will be applied to the bond’s outstanding balance and will eventually “amortize” the bond’s principal, via write-downs, down to zero. At each month, you calculate what amount of interest the bond should receive. Then we apply the loss amount for that month and decrease the bond’s outstanding principal balance so that in the next month there will, of course, be less interest earned. We keep doing this until the bond’s balance has been written down to zero, at which point you’re not earning any more interest on the bond. At that point, the bond has disappeared. Then sum up the interest payments that you received during the time when the bond was still “alive” and you have the amount of cash you’re going to receive on this bond. Divide that by the principal currently outstanding on the bond and you have the price that might be indicative of what you would be willing to pay. Notice that this last sentence is disregarding the time value of money. It can be an enhancement to “present value” (PV) those interest cash flows and then sum up the PV-ed cash flows to get a more accurate price.

It should be noted that if there is any “OC” remaining at the bottom of the capital structure in the deal, you have to allocate the loss amounts to the OC first before they start to impact the bond you’re evaluating. Likewise if there are any bonds BELOW the one you’re evaluating, because of the fact that losses are allocated from the bottom of the capital structure upwards, then each of those bonds below your bond each have to be written down to zero before the loss amounts start to impact your particular bond. The point being that your spreadsheet application must retrieve all of the bonds and any OC BELOW your bond and apply the loss amounts to EACH of their principal outstanding amounts BEFORE the losses start to impact your particular bond. Of course, this means that ALL of the bonds below the one you’re evaluating are also, each one, a “Credit IO” bond.

A few other observations

I want to emphasize that decreasing the FC and REO timelines in the model will have the impact of decreasing the amount of time that the bonds will survive thereby decreasing the length of time that the bonds will earn interest resulting in a lower price that one would be willing to pay for the bond. Obviously, if you’re buying you want to pay as low as possible so underestimating time lines will help you. If you’re selling, you’ll probably want to consider that the time lines are longer so that you can sell it for a higher price. These are the normal competitive sort of interests in the market place.

The above represents a simplistic model but one which gives a much greater degree of flexibility than the Bloomberg MTCS function. Done correctly, it also permits the user to adjust the time lines and severities to ones which they feel comfortable with when evaluating “Credit IO’s”.

Also, by keeping all of the above factors in mind, the user/trader can still perform the analysis in the way that they see fits best for the environment they’re in. They’re not “locked” into a “black box” which they can’t see inside of. There are, of course, much more extensive features that can be built into such a model which are not within the scope of this article.

What Is the DXY Dollar Index?

The DXY is an indicator that many market watchers and commentators reference and quote. So what is the DXY or US Dollar index?

The DXY is a geometrically weighted index of some of the major trading partners of the United States. The composition if the DXY Index is heavily weighted towards the Euro and European countries that have not joined the European common market. The components of the DXY Index are (by weighting): Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), Great Britain- Pounds Sterling (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Because of the composition of the DXY, it is sometimes referred to as the Anti-Euro Index.

The DXY is a convenient index to use as a simple method for referencing strength and weakness of the US Dollar (USD). But its ubiquity disguises the fact that it does not reflect the value of the dollar against a broad enough basket of currencies. The DXY was created by JP Morgan in 1973, and it has only been updated once, for the introduction of the Euro currency.

The DXY is heavily weighted towards European currencies, it underweight’s the Canadian Dollar, as a proportion of US trade, and it largely ignores important Asian and Pacific trading partners, including Korea, Australia, Taiwan and necessarily China. Even if one were interested in including the Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) it would be both difficult and of questionable informational value to include the Renminbi because China keeps their currency pegged to a range that is based on the dollar.

A more accurate basket of currencies to track the relative value of the USD would be to value the dollar against the top US trading partners. The top 6 US trading partners, from high to low are: Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany and the UK. It’s hard to say why JP Morgan created this index and how it came into such prominence. One odd thing about this index is you cannot trade it. There is no market that you can go to and buy the DXY. The closest you can get are futures and options contracts traded on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE).

If it’s so inaccurate, then why is it so widely quoted? While there are more accurate ways to benchmark the USD, absolute precision is not always important for an indicator. Many traders and institutions likely have their own indices that they use to track the USD, but for the sake of comparison, it is very convenient to have a common index. The DXY is also highly correlated to a trade-weighted index most of the time. Relative strength or weakness moves by the USD represents huge flows of money. As I’ve written previously, the recent +10% move by the DXY represents more than $1 trillion of nominal wealth destruction. Moves of this magnitude do not happen in a vacuum and the relative weakness of the DXY is mirrored by corresponding weakness in the trade-weighted index.

While there are shortcomings, the DXY does serve as a reliable indicator of USD strength and weakness and can be used as such, as long as one keeps in mind that it will occasionally be skewed if there are large currency moves that occur in the Euro.

The Effects of Globalization in the Philippines

From the creation of the Silk Road to the invention of boats and railroads, globalization has proven to be a staple in economic culture. The engagement of international trading has been ongoing for centuries. Globalization becomes more critical as the world advances, as it interconnects the economy through business and technology. Without a doubt, globalization is an important constituent in the world economy and will continue to be so long as economic interactions between different nations endure. International trading and the internet are two important components that drive globalization, heavily impacting developing countries such as the Philippines. Countries able to adapt to the impacts of globalization can take advantage of the many opportunities it has to offer. However, social and economic disparities between other countries terrorize employment and social progress. Globalization is a heavily controversial topic because of its ability to either serve as a substantial benefit to a country’s economy, or do the complete opposite and cause it to decline further.

The Philippines is one of the many developing Asian countries affected by globalization. Since World War II, the United States has had a strong influence on the Philippines, a very poor country. As a result, the Philippines have had to deal with the rapid implications of globalization, which can be a very effective improvement and allow many positive changes for the economy. Hypothetically, there could be an increase in jobs in labor and exposure to Filipino companies to help the economy grow. The Philippines would be making positive progress; the country will have much to look forward to in the future, as they rely on the agricultural world to make income. Some major crops include coconuts, fruits and vegetables, tobacco, sugar, and hemp. Exportation of these goods are what this country depends on each year. Although this may sound convincing to support the concept of globalization, the Philippines have been facing a number of obstacles with it.

This begs the question: Will the Philippines truly benefit from globalization? Since the country is rigged with political corruption and poverty has been increasing over the years, natives would argue that globalization has not posed any significant benefit. The nation does not trust the process of globalization since there are still economic problems. The vast majority of the population in the Philippines depends on the decisions the leaders make since they are the ones who can truly make a difference for their nation. More than half of the country lives in poverty, which leads to corruption since they cannot figure out how to reduce this ongoing problem. The newly appointed president, Rodrigo Duterte has shifted from his war on drugs to a focus on corruption since it severely affected the nation. President Duterte has hindered the freedom and democracy because of his death squads, which has crippled the economic growth and market. These death squads were President Duterte’s solution to fighting the drug epidemic, but actually caused fear rather than safety. Investors are very concerned about the economic and political future of the Philippines, especially because China needs a market for its manufactured products and the Philippines would be a prospective nation.

Globalization offers many benefits and opportunities that developing countries can gain from. Whether it may be reducing barriers with foreign nations by trading freely or by creating new markets, this process may sound enticing for a country such as the Philippines who have been struggling with countless issues over the years. However, globalization has served little to no impact on improving the nation. Poverty has been ongoing for years now and globalization has caused this problem to rise even more. A vast majority of Filipinos are working overseas to make any source of income to help their friends and relatives back in the Philippines. If globalization was the key to fixing the economy and poverty, then why are people providing for their families internationally? A factor for having a poor political and economic system in the Philippines is because of corruption. The future of the nation solely depends on the political leaders, but many of the government officials are corrupted. Even though President Duterte had transitioned from a bloody war with drugs to corruption, he actually caused more disruption to this issue by throwing thousands of officials into jail or an island filled Islamist militants and kidnappers without any proof of corruption. Globalization has many negative effects to the Philippines, which raises an issue if this process really does offer any favorable benefits for developing countries.

The Easy Way to Make Piles of Money by Skimming Forex Robot Reviews

There are thousands of forex robot reviews on the Internet. It can be hard to dig through them, and figure out which are honest and which are self-serving. Many people write fake reviews to try to get you to buy the robots.

Luckily, you don’t have to believe them. Just because they say something doesn’t mean it’s true. You’re simply going to use their review as a guide. You can verify their conclusions with only a little bit of work.

Here’s how you can do that…

Go to a forex broker and open a demo account that allows forex robots (expert advisors). There are many of them online, and you might want to try several until you find one you like.

You are going to be testing lots of robots, so you don’t want a broker that is difficult to deal with. Find one that you’re comfortable with.

After you’ve found a good broker, read through the reviews. When you find a robot you want to try, go to the sales page. Make sure that they offer a money-back guarantee.

Most of them offer at least an 8 weeks guarantee. This means that if the robot doesn’t work as advertised, you can get your money back.

After you buy the robot, set it up in your demo account and let it trade for you. You might want to invest in a virtual private server (VPS) so that you don’t have to leave your computer on 24 hours a day. This program runs on your broker’s computer and hosts the robot for you. That way you don’t have to install it on your home PC.

Let the robot trade for you for a few weeks, until you’re sure it’s doing a good job. Then you should test the robot with a live account. Don’t risk a lot of money. Many robots will trade profitably in a demo account, but fall apart when unleashed on a live account.

Remember to only let a robot trade with money you can afford to lose. Don’t let a computer program trade your retirement nest egg.

Finally, remember that not all forex robot reviews are equal. Find some reviewers you can trust, and this will make your life easier.

Clothing Business In Dubai: A Market Overview

The clothing business in Dubai exists in its current scope due to its role as a regional commerce center in the Middle East. Dubai, is an emirate that is part of the United Arab Emirates. Its regional business role is in part due to its geographic location, and to the creation of a free trade zone for trading and labor around its airport, Jebel Ali. The banking sector is very strong since many Middle East based businesses safeguard their deposits in Dubai based banks. Residential and commercial real estate development has also been very strong because of the influx of foreign investment. Tourism and business travel is a major component of Dubai’s economy, with Americans, Africans, Arabs, Iranians, and Europeans conducting business in this city state. Recent trade embargoes have impacted the level of commerce between Dubai and Iran.

Dubai’s clothing market is comprised of both domestic and export related segments. The majority of Dubai’s population of 2.2 million people is Arab, with approximately 5% being comprised of workers from Asian countries, with a smaller percentage of expatriate business people taking full time residency.

Domestic clothing purchases are traditional robes for the male and female Arab population. Female clothing should be long sleeve with high necklines. Because Dubai is a more open society than some of the regional surrounding countries, foreign laborers and expatriate business people can wear their choice of clothing, provided that the clothing that women wear is conservative in appearance. In Dubai’s business circles men will wear suits and dress shirts, with some women wearing suits as well. Clothing is generally sold in gender based stores to accommodate religious views.

The weather in Dubai is hot throughout the year, on average over 80 degrees, with winter temperatures of as low as 73 degrees, and summer temperatures of up to 107 degrees. For this reason cotton apparel is preferred, since it keeps the body temperature low and allows for perspiration. Domestically, clothing is sold from small independent shops and from malls, such as the trendy Deira City Center and the BurJuman shopping center. Popular clothing businesses in Dubai include the Golf Clothing Stores and the UAE National Women’s Clothing Shop. Bloomingdales has two local stores as well.

The second segment of the clothing business in Dubai is comprised of the export market. Due to the active and open business channels that exist in Dubai, and its prime gulf location, wholesale clothing is exported throughout the Middle East, and as far as Turkey and Africa. Brand name closeout lots of clothing are sent by container, often to markets where the brand owners do not have an established presence.

In response to strong demand for wholesale American clothing, importers will buy from US wholesalers and resell the clothing to local and foreign boutiques, department stores, and importers. Wholesale showrooms are set up to display merchandise to shoppers that travel to visit the wholesale district. Top sellers are sports wear, jeans, and dresses. Customs in Dubai is strict in monitoring the inflow and sale of apparel, and only authentic clothing is permitted entry into the country.